Transmission and Distribution World published this final column in a four-part series by AEE's Bob Keough summarizing AEE's 2019 Market Report findings. Read excerpts below and the entire T&D World piece here.
According to the Advanced Energy Now 2019 Market Report, advanced transportation was the largest advanced energy segment worldwide in 2018 for the second year in a row, with an estimated US$494.8 billion in revenue, up 2% from 2017 and 8% the year before. Since 2011, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of advanced transportation globally was 6%. At the end of 2018, over five million plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) were on the roads worldwide.
PEV sales are poised to enter a period of strong growth, driven by lower battery prices, maturing plug-in hybrid and all-electric powertrain systems, and a proliferation of new models. By the end of 2027, Navigant Research expects there to be 10 times as many PEVs on the road. In the United States, PEV sales are surging as well, with overall advanced transportation revenue growing 34% year over year. Since 2011, U.S. advanced transportation revenue has grown at a CAGR of 15%.
Globally, clean diesel vehicles, both passenger cars and trucks of all sizes, still make up the bulk of the advanced transportation market, despite well-publicized issues, though evidence suggests that a massive shift toward PEVs is underway. At US$262 billion, clean diesel revenue accounted for well over half of advanced transportation revenue worldwide in 2018, despite dropping 12% from 2017. Hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) continue to grow globally, with revenue from hybrid sales up 8%, to US$70 billion. But the growth story in advanced transportation is in PEVs, with revenue growing 49% globally, to US$78 billion, and 75%, to US$18 billion, in the United States.
Light duty PEV sales experienced another record year, with over two million vehicles sold worldwide, including 360,000 in the United States. As of June 2018, over 40 models of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) were on the market, with many more on the horizon in the coming years. Technology advances in battery packs continue to reduce the purchase price, making more affordable PEVs — such as Tesla Model 3, Chevrolet Bolt, and Nissan Leaf — a reality.
Read the entire T&D World piece here.